How do we feed the world’s population in the future? This will be one of the main challenges in the coming decades. Oxfam International, a major NGO, recognizes this. They recently launched their Future of Agriculture week. Several experts will give their opinions about the future of agriculture and the underlying issue ‘how do we feed 9 billion people?’. There is no doubt that each expert will focus on another aspect. Therefore, I am presenting a reading guide in this blog, to categorize the contributions of the experts.
The challenge
The challenge is simple: the world population is growing by 74 million people each year. This implies that the population will grow to 9 billion people in 2050. The prospects, however, are diverging from 6 billion people to 16 billion people, depending on the estimation of the fertility rate (number of children during the lifetime of a woman). The official UN estimations can be found in the World Population Prospects. Besides the increase in the world population, people become –on average- wealthier. This increasing wealth leads to higher and more affluent food consumption patterns. Together, these two factors are responsible for a projected increase in food production of 70% in 2050. Is this enormous increase possible in a sustainable and fair way?
Solutions
I described earlier on my website the IPAT equation (in Dutch). This equation states that the impact on the environment (I) is depending on Population size (P), Affluence (A) and Technology (T). Using this framework, solutions are available if we: 1) slow the growth of the population, 2) decrease the effect of consumption (e.g. lower meat consumption) and 3) develop new technologies.
Will this be enough? Unfortunately, reality is much more complicated. Other cultural and political factors are also playing a role. After all, the IPAT framework is designed for environmental issues. Therefore, other sciences come up with other frameworks. A very interesting analysis is given in a short movie by Evan Fraser (University of Guelph, Canada).
According to these scientists, four factors can help to feed the world: science & technology, distribution, local food systems and strong regulation. There are some similarities with the IPAT framework: these scientists also emphasize the role of new technologies. New crops and new technologies need to be implemented.
The production of meat is also mentioned as one of the problems in feeding 9 billion people. This is summarized under the title ‘distribution’: we have to distribute our food better. Feeding our food to animals does not fit into this fair distribution. The distribution argument is often cited: there is enough food available for everyone, but the distribution is unfair. People in Westerns countries are consuming too much food, while people in poor countries are starving. Thus, feeding the world is not a matter of production, but a matter of distribution.
In the end, the scientists come up with two other factors: the importance of local food systems as a buffer and regulation by the government. It is estimated that cities consume 70% of all produced food, whereas they contribute only 2% to the food production. A failed harvest, a war, or a natural disaster, can cause immediate and major problems. This emphasizes the importance of local buffers. Regulation by the government is another factor. Food is a necessity of life and not a product of the so-called free market. Regulation is necessary to prevent problems.
A reading guide
An important point is that the ideal solution does not exist. I really want to stress this point: there is no such thing as a silver bullet. All solutions need to be implemented simultaneously. Local circumstances are really important and need to be considered before implementation. Thus, in short: the world is complex and solutions for the world food problem even more.
Nevertheless, it is possible to group solutions. I summarized them below.
- Technological solutions. Energy efficiency, use of chemical fertilizer, water saving strategies, drought resistant crops. These solutions will be mentioned, without doubt.
- Political and institutional measures. Trade barriers, subsidies, regulation, size of the farms, and so on. These are all political and institutional measures. Essential for a right solution.
- Behavioral measures. How do we deal with food? Food waste, adopting local knowledge about climate and soil, adopting new technologies, change our consumption patterns. These are all solutions targeting our own behaviors and our attitudes towards food and food production.
If you are following the Future of Agriculture in the coming weeks, you will see that all solutions can be grouped into one of these broad categories.
It is interesting to discuss these complex issues. But in the end, the result counts. Therefore, my main question is: will this debate lead to any practical solutions? To be continued..
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